Iran has confirmed it will not attend the planned second round of peace talks in Pakistan, dramatically narrowing the window for a deal before the US-Iran ceasefire expires on Wednesday evening.
Why it matters: South Africa imports more than 65% of its refined fuel. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed pushes the country closer to diesel prices that have not been seen before, with direct consequences for food, transport, and inflation.
Tehran walks away
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref described the American approach to negotiations as “childish” and inconsistent. The Foreign Ministry confirmed Monday that Tehran has “no plans” to participate in the Islamabad talks.
Vice President JD Vance is still expected to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. But without an Iranian delegation, the visit becomes a diplomatic gesture rather than a negotiation.
The SA fuel exposure
Inland diesel already sits at a record R26.11 per litre after the April adjustments. Central Energy Fund data projects a further R2.63 per litre increase in May if Brent crude stays above $100.
Finance Minister Godongwana’s temporary R3 fuel levy cut expires in May. If crude prices remain elevated, South Africans face the full force of both the international price increase and the levy restoration simultaneously.
Supporters of continued pressure say the United States cannot negotiate from weakness with a regime that funds proxy militaries across the Middle East and has restarted uranium enrichment. A ceasefire without conditions, they argue, rewards Iranian intransigence.
Critics of the US approach say the naval blockade and refusal to lift sanctions during talks left Iran no face-saving path to agreement. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has publicly urged both sides to show flexibility, warning that the humanitarian cost of continued conflict in the Gulf extends far beyond the Middle East.
What happens next
President Trump said Sunday that a further extension is “highly unlikely.” If fighting resumes and the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, oil analysts project Brent could test $110 within two weeks. For South Africa, that scenario would push diesel past R40 per litre and force the SARB to weigh rate hikes at its May meeting.