The two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires on Wednesday with no deal in place. For South Africa, the next 48 hours could determine whether diesel prices stabilise or spike past R40 per litre.

Why it matters: South Africa refines less than 35% of its fuel domestically. Every dollar Brent crude rises above $100 feeds directly into what South Africans pay at the pump, and into the cost of every item transported by road.

The ceasefire breakdown

Marathon talks in Islamabad collapsed on 12 April over three irreconcilable issues: Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, its funding for regional proxy groups, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s military re-closed the strait on 18 April, reversing a brief reopening, after the United States refused to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude, which had dipped 15% to $93.82 on the ceasefire announcement, climbed back above $95.

The SA exposure

According to Central Energy Fund data, diesel could approach R40 per litre in May if crude stays above $100 and the rand remains weak. Inland diesel already sits at a record R26.11 per litre. The rand strengthened 2.3% against the dollar when the ceasefire was announced on 8 April but has since given back most of those gains.

Economists warn that a further fuel spike would hit food transport hardest. Diesel powers the trucks that move goods across the country, and food prices are already elevated after months of above-target inflation.

What both sides say

Those pushing for an immediate extension argue that even an imperfect ceasefire keeps oil below $100 and buys time for diplomacy. Mediators from Pakistan, Oman and the UAE are pressing both sides to agree to a rollover.

Hawks in Washington argue that lifting the blockade without nuclear concessions would reward Iran’s enrichment programme and embolden its proxy network. Iran says it will not negotiate under military pressure and insists the strait is sovereign territory.

What happens next

If the ceasefire lapses without extension, analysts expect Brent to test $110 within days. For South Africa, that would mean a diesel increase of R8 to R10 per litre in May, on top of the R7.51 already absorbed this month.

If an extension is agreed, oil markets are expected to settle in the $90 to $95 range, limiting further damage to the rand and fuel prices. The next 48 hours will determine which scenario unfolds.