Central Energy Fund data published this week shows South Africa could face diesel prices approaching R40 per litre in May. The projection is based on current Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel and sustained weakness in the rand against the US dollar.
Why it matters
South Africa’s economy runs on diesel. Trucks move more than 80% of the country’s freight by road. A R40 diesel price would represent a roughly 50% increase from early March levels, feeding directly into the cost of food, building materials, and manufactured goods.
The exposure
According to EWN, the country refines less than 35% of the fuel it consumes domestically. The 2022 closure of the Sapref refinery in Durban, which once processed 180,000 barrels per day, left South Africa almost entirely dependent on imported refined fuel.
This means the basic fuel price tracks the international crude price and the rand-dollar exchange rate with almost no buffer. A 1% depreciation of the rand typically increases fuel prices by 0.6% to 0.8%, according to CNBC Africa. When crude surges and the currency weakens simultaneously, the effect compounds.
Current prices
Inland diesel currently costs R26.11 per litre, already a record. Coastal petrol sits at R22.53. The government’s R3-per-litre fuel levy reduction expires on 5 May, and Treasury has given no indication of an extension.
What happens next
The official May fuel price adjustment will be published in the final week of April. If the Hormuz blockade holds and Brent crude remains elevated, analysts say the increase could exceed the R10 to R14 range projected last week. Whether the levy cut is extended will depend on Treasury’s fiscal position and the political pressure of an election year.