President Donald Trump announced a “complete blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, hours after US-Iran peace talks collapsed in Islamabad without a deal. The US Navy will intercept all vessels entering or leaving the strait, Trump said on Truth Social.
Why it matters
About 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. South Africa imports virtually all of its crude oil, making the country acutely vulnerable to supply disruptions and price spikes in global energy markets.
The numbers
Brent crude surged from an average of $69 per barrel in February to above $93 in March after Iran first restricted strait traffic. Diesel jumped by more than R7 per litre on 1 April, the single largest monthly fuel increase in South African history. Petrol rose by R3.06 per litre.
The government’s R3-per-litre fuel levy reduction, in effect from 1 April to 5 May, softened the blow. But Treasury absorbs R6 billion in lost revenue, and the relief expires in weeks.
What analysts say
According to projections from the Automobile Association and energy analysts, a further R10 to R14 diesel increase is possible in May if the blockade holds. Wholesale diesel could reach R26 per litre inland, roughly double the price from a year ago.
Higher diesel prices feed directly into food costs, public transport fares and logistics. According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, food inflation could breach 10% by mid-year if fuel costs remain elevated.
The other side
Some analysts note that a blockade may force Iran back to the table faster, leading to a quicker resolution. Brent crude briefly fell 16% after a temporary ceasefire was announced in early April, showing how rapidly markets can reverse.
What happens next
Trump also threatened 50% tariffs on any country assisting Iran, a warning directed at China. South Africa’s May fuel price adjustment will be published in the last week of April. The fuel levy relief expires on 5 May with no indication of an extension.