The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ coalition on 1 May, ending 59 years of membership in the oil cartel. Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the decision reflects the country’s “national interests” and long-term energy strategy.

Why it matters

The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Its departure strips the cartel of roughly 2.37 million barrels per day of current output and more than 4 million barrels per day of production capacity, weakening OPEC’s ability to control global supply.

Production ambitions

Under the OPEC+ deal, the UAE had been held to roughly 3 million barrels per day while sitting on capacity above 4 million. Al-Mazrouei said the country aims to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2027, a target that required freedom from quota constraints.

The UAE made the announcement without prior consultation with Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. The two Gulf states had clashed repeatedly over production ceilings, with the UAE arguing its quotas did not reflect its investment in upstream capacity.

Iran factor

The exit comes after weeks of Iranian missile and drone attacks on UAE infrastructure during the broader conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the UAE are both OPEC members, and the attacks added a security dimension to what had been a commercial disagreement.

Brent crude traded at roughly $108 per barrel on 29 April. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the UAE’s departure could add 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day to global supply within six months if the country ramps production quickly, which would offset some of the war-driven price premium.

What it means for OPEC

The cartel has now lost its third-largest producer during its most significant geopolitical crisis in decades. Qatar left OPEC in 2019, but its output was far smaller. Ecuador, Indonesia, and Gabon also departed in recent years.

Saudi Arabia, which produces roughly 9 million barrels per day, remains the dominant member. But the kingdom’s ability to enforce production discipline across the remaining members becomes harder with the UAE operating independently.