Tesla reports first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Wall Street expects roughly $22 billion in revenue and $0.36 earnings per share.
Why it matters: Tesla’s delivery miss and record inventory surplus are testing investor confidence in the company’s transition from carmaker to artificial intelligence and robotaxi platform.
The delivery problem
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, missing the consensus estimate of 365,645. The figure represents a 14% decline from the previous quarter.
Production outpaced deliveries by more than 50,000 units. That surplus is a record, exceeding the previous high of 46,500 set in the first quarter of 2024.
The shortfall came as Chinese competitors continued to undercut Tesla on price. BYD and other domestic manufacturers gained market share with lower-cost electric models throughout the quarter.
Robotaxi questions
Tesla’s robotaxi network remains active in Austin and San Francisco. An expansion to seven additional cities, previously announced by CEO Elon Musk, has not occurred.
Tesla disclosed this week that human operators can remotely control its robotaxis at speeds up to 10 mph when the autonomous system encounters limitations. UBS analysts said the rollout may proceed at a slower pace than initially projected.
The Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot, which Musk has promoted as future revenue drivers, have yet to contribute to the company’s bottom line.
Energy storage misses too
Tesla’s energy storage deployments totalled 8.8 gigawatt-hours in the quarter, well below the 12.45 GWh estimate. The segment had been a bright spot in previous quarters.
What happens next
Analysts will focus on management commentary during the earnings call. Key questions include the timeline for robotaxi city expansion, pricing strategy in China, and whether the inventory build-up reflects a temporary production scheduling issue or a structural demand problem.
Tesla shares have been on an eight-week slide heading into the report. According to investor Gary Black, the decline is driven by disappointing deliveries and growing robotaxi scepticism.