Vice President JD Vance is departing Washington on Tuesday for Pakistan, where he will attempt to salvage a ceasefire with Iran that is due to expire Wednesday evening. President Trump has said an extension is “highly unlikely.”
Why it matters: If the ceasefire collapses, the U.S. has signalled it will resume strikes on Iranian infrastructure, risking a wider regional escalation and further disruption to global energy supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The case for talks
Supporters of continued diplomacy argue that the first Islamabad round, held on 11 April, made progress despite ending without a formal agreement. Pakistan has positioned itself as a neutral mediator, and European allies have urged both sides to keep the channel open.
Senator Chris Murphy, the leading Democratic voice on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on 20 April that “walking away from the table guarantees the worst outcome for American troops, Iranian civilians, and global markets.”
The case for pressure
The Trump administration argues that Iran has used the ceasefire to rearm and reposition forces. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said on 20 April that Iran “cleared missile tunnels during the pause” and that extending the ceasefire without conditions rewards bad faith.
Trump himself threatened to “bomb every bridge, every power plant, every refinery” if Iran does not agree to terms. He framed the Touska seizure as enforcing a lawful blockade.
The ship seizure complicating talks
On 19 April, the USS Spruance fired on and boarded the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after its crew refused to comply with six hours of warnings. Iran called the seizure “criminal” and demanded the ship’s return.
Tehran’s Foreign Ministry said the incident made sending negotiators to Islamabad impossible. The seizure effectively ended Iran’s willingness to engage before the ceasefire deadline.
What happens next
Vance is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Wednesday. Whether Iran sends a delegation remains uncertain. If no agreement is reached by Wednesday evening Washington time, Trump has authorised a resumption of military operations. The U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place regardless of the ceasefire status.