What the report says

The UN Conference on Trade and Development published its April 2026 Global Trade Update this week, projecting that global merchandise trade growth will slow from 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% this year. Total global trade reached $35 trillion in 2025, but the gains are now at risk.

The primary drivers are the near-halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy costs rippling through supply chains, and increasing trade policy fragmentation between major economic blocs.

Why it matters

The report identifies a stark vulnerability: 3.4 billion people — nearly half the world’s population — live in countries already spending more on debt service than on health or education. For these nations, rising import costs and weakening currencies compound an already precarious fiscal position.

Developing economies in East Asia and Africa had been outperforming on trade growth before the Hormuz crisis. They now face the steepest reversals because of their heavy reliance on imported energy, food and fertilisers.

South Africa’s exposure

South Africa refines less than 35% of its fuel domestically, leaving prices almost entirely exposed to international crude markets and the exchange rate. Inland diesel already sits at a record R26.11 per litre, with Central Energy Fund data suggesting prices could breach R40 in May if Brent stays above $100.

The rand, which had strengthened 2.3% when the US-Iran ceasefire was announced, faces renewed pressure as the ceasefire expiry approaches on 22 April.

Emerging connector economies

UNCTAD identifies Cambodia, Egypt, Vietnam and Indonesia as “connector economies” that are helping stabilise trade flows by integrating into supply chains that bypass geopolitical fault lines. These nations have attracted investment from firms seeking alternatives to China-dependent production.

The debt trap

The IMF’s parallel World Economic Outlook, also published this month, projects global growth will decline in 2026 as Hormuz disruptions feed through to consumer prices. For heavily indebted developing nations, the combination of higher import bills, falling currencies and rising borrowing costs creates what UNCTAD calls a “compounding vulnerability spiral” with limited fiscal space to respond.