EFF leader Julius Malema returned to court in KuGompo City on Wednesday to hear his fate in a firearm case that has dragged on for eight years. Magistrate Twanet Olivier is expected to hand down the sentence on Thursday after hearing final arguments from both sides.

Why it matters: A prison sentence of more than 12 months without the option of a fine would strip Malema of his seat in the National Assembly and bar him from public office for five years. For the EFF, already struggling in the polls, losing its founder from parliament would be an existential blow.

The state’s case

Prosecutors asked the court to impose 15 years of direct imprisonment. Malema was convicted on five counts under the Firearms Control Act, including unlawful possession of a firearm and ammunition, discharging a weapon in a built-up area, and reckless endangerment.

The charges relate to a 2018 rally in Mdantsane, Eastern Cape, where video footage showed Malema firing a semi-automatic rifle into the air in front of thousands of supporters. The state argued Malema has shown no remorse and has attempted to shift blame throughout the trial.

The defence’s case

Malema’s legal team argued for a non-custodial sentence, pointing to his status as a first-time offender. A social worker who assessed Malema recommended a fine rather than jail time, citing his role as a family provider and his political responsibilities.

Malema himself dismissed concerns about the outcome, telling reporters outside court: “I am too old to be shaken by young Afrikaner boys.” He was referring to the civil rights organisation AfriForum, which brought the original private prosecution and has called for a “fair and serious” sentence.

What happens next

Magistrate Olivier will deliver the sentence on Thursday, 16 April. Malema has said he will appeal both the conviction and the sentence, to the Constitutional Court if necessary. An appeal would not automatically suspend the sentence, but his lawyers are expected to apply for bail pending appeal.

Large crowds of EFF supporters gathered outside the courthouse on Wednesday. The party has warned that jailing Malema would provoke unrest, though party officials stopped short of calling for specific action.