It has been one year since President Trump signed Executive Order 14257 on 2 April 2025, imposing tariffs on imports from nearly every US trading partner. The anniversary has produced duelling assessments of whether the policy worked.
Why it matters
The tariffs reshaped global trade flows and became the defining economic policy of Trump’s second term. Their success or failure will be a central argument in the November midterm elections.
The administration’s case
The US Trade Representative reported that the goods trade deficit fell 24 per cent from April 2025 through February 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier. The deficit with China dropped 30 per cent. The deficit with the European Union fell 45 per cent. Customs revenue in the first five months of the fiscal year reached $151 billion, nearly four times the previous year’s figure.
The critics’ case
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, US factories employed 100,000 fewer workers in April 2026 than when the tariffs took effect. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs contributed to modestly higher inflation. The Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic staff projected that American families will pay roughly $2,500 in additional costs this year.
In February, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose the tariffs was unconstitutional. The administration reimposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff under a separate trade statute for a five-month period while customs processes refunds on the original duties.
What happens next
The temporary 10 per cent tariff authority expires in July. Congress would need to pass legislation to make any tariff regime permanent. USMCA renegotiations with Mexico and Canada are also under way, adding further uncertainty for businesses planning supply chains.