Legal immigration to the United States has fallen far more sharply than illegal border crossings under the Trump administration, according to research published by the Cato Institute on 14 April. The study found that 132,000 fewer people are admitted through legal pathways each month, a cut 2.5 times larger than the reduction in illegal entries.
Why it matters
The administration has framed its immigration agenda as a crackdown on illegal crossings while supporting legal pathways. The data suggests the opposite is happening, with legal immigration bearing the steeper decline.
The numbers
David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, documented several sharp drops. Refugee admissions fell roughly 90%, from about 12,500 in late 2024 to just 1,300 by March 2026.
H-1B visa petitions dropped 87% after the president imposed a $100,000 fee on employers seeking workers from outside the United States. Student visa issuance fell by nearly half between mid-2024 and mid-2025.
The administration also suspended immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, primarily affecting family members of US citizens, including spouses and minor children waiting to reunite.
The debate
Supporters of the cuts say legal immigration was inflated under Biden-era policies and that reducing numbers protects American wages and jobs. They point to the administration’s stated goal of a merit-based system that prioritises high-skilled workers.
Critics, including business groups and immigration advocates, argue the administration is dismantling the legal system it claims to champion. The $100,000 H-1B fee, they say, effectively blocks mid-sized companies from hiring skilled foreign workers while doing nothing to address illegal crossings.
What happens next
Several lawsuits challenging the visa fee and the processing suspensions are moving through federal courts. Congress is also weighing whether to codify or reverse the changes as part of broader immigration legislation expected later this year.