The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly quieter than usual, according to Colorado State University’s annual forecast released this week.
Why it matters: After consecutive above-average seasons that battered the Gulf Coast and Caribbean, a calmer year would give coastal communities and insurers breathing room. But “below average” does not mean safe — it takes only one storm making landfall to cause catastrophic damage.
The forecast
CSU projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. For comparison, an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The probability of a major hurricane striking the US coastline is 32%, below the historical average of 43% calculated from data going back to 1880.
Why El Niño matters
The primary suppressing force is a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific. El Niño increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart storms before they can organise into hurricanes.
CSU expects wind shear this season to be the second highest since 1981, trailing only the powerful El Niño year of 2015.
What to watch
The forecast carries significant uncertainty at this stage. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic remain above average, which favours storm development and could partially offset El Niño’s dampening effect.
CSU will issue an updated forecast in June. NOAA releases its official seasonal outlook around the same time. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.