President Ramaphosa used the sixth South Africa Investment Conference to announce 81 pledges worth R415 billion and raise the country’s investment target to R3 trillion.

The gap between pledged investment and actual capital spending will determine whether South Africa can reduce its 32% unemployment rate. That makes these numbers worth scrutinising.

What the government says

The Presidency says the conferences have delivered. Since 2018, the five previous events attracted R1.56 trillion in commitments, exceeding the original R1.2 trillion target by 26%. The government says R600 billion has already been invested.

Sasol made the largest single pledge at R60 billion to upgrade existing operations. The government also announced a R3.35 trillion public investment pipeline over three years.

Ramaphosa pointed to four consecutive quarters of growth, inflation converging toward 3%, a credit rating upgrade, and removal from the FATF grey list.

What the economists say

Several economists argue the pledge figures do not translate into measurable investment.

Duma Gqubule, an independent economist, said gross fixed capital formation fell 15.1% between 2018 and 2025. The government component dropped 19.1%. Real per capita investment fell 26.3%.

“I don’t know why the president insists on having these national charades,” Gqubule said. He pointed to De Beers’ Venetia Mine as an example of existing projects re-announced as new pledges.

Azar Jammine described the conferences as a “marketing exercise” that produces no visible outcomes.

Dawie Roodt said he did not believe all the numbers. “Many of these numbers would have happened in any event. And I also believe that there is a lot of double counting.”

What the data shows

World Bank figures provide context for both sides. Gross fixed capital formation stood at 16% of GDP in 2018. It fell to 13% by 2021, recovered partially, then slid back to 13%.

Stats SA recorded a 1.3% increase in Q4 2025, contributing 0.2 percentage points to growth. The trend is marginally positive but remains below where the conferences started.

Roodt noted that capital inflows in 2025 went into equities and bonds, not into the “real economy” where factories and mines are built. Portfolio investment can leave quickly. Fixed capital investment creates lasting jobs.

What happens next

The second investment drive targets R2 trillion by 2030. The government has committed to a monitoring mechanism to track pledge delivery.

Stellenbosch Business School economist Nthabiseng Moleko identified port efficiency as the decisive factor. If South African ports are not efficient, she warned, companies will invest elsewhere on the continent.

The next meaningful test will be Stats SA’s gross fixed capital formation figures for 2026. If the investment-to-GDP ratio rises above 14%, the conferences are starting to work. If it stays at 13%, the economists have a point.